Bitcoin (BTC) has never been so oversold in the last month before its block reward halving, one important indicator shows.
In an ongoing Twitter debate on April 11, the analyst known as PlanB noted that Bitcoin’s relative strength index (RSI) was unusually low.
Indicator hits record pre-halving lows
The oscillator uses a scale from 1 to 100 to determine whether Bitcoin is overbought or oversold at a particular price.
The 12-month RSI currently registers 49 — near its historic lows. Since 2011, according to data from PlanB, it has only seen two periods below that level, in 2015 and late 2018.
What’s more, before Bitcoin’s two previous halvings in 2012 and 2016, the 12-month RSI was much higher — around 70.
Around 30 days remain until the 2020 halving.
Bitcoin 12-month RSI, 2011-present. Source: PlanB/ Twitter
“#bitcoin RSI … never been this weak before the halving,” PlanB summarized. He subsequently confirmed that by “weakness,” he meant that Bitcoin was oversold.
…But BTC is still on target
Halvings are a seminal event for Bitcoin holders, as the amount paid to miners each block reduces by 50%.
This increases Bitcoin’s “hardness” as money by reducing its inflation and improving its stock-to-flow ratio — a key metric which PlanB curates.
Stock-to-flow has proven extremely accurate at predicting Bitcoin price performance. Despite fielding criticism, the model has yet to fail and even takes into account Bitcoin’s dramatic fall to $3,700 in March.
More generally, a low RSI reading reinforces the idea that price rises are due, while BTC/USD currently also resides in the lower echelons of the stock-to-flow corridor. According to the latter, a dramatic leg up to an average of $100,000 should occur by the end of 2021.