The case for “We have seem the bottom” : Bitcoin

What defines the end of bear market is NOT the mood of the players. It’s the BTC availability in hands of the bears. If the bears don’t have btc left to sell, sorry, there’s no way to the market to go much down. So we can have a situation that everyone is kind of bearish, but the ones that would actually sell don’t have the btc to sell anymore, all the btc left is in hand of people that want to hold or NOT realise losses.

By now there is a particular indicator (MVRV) that shows (by consequence) that the probability for a random holder to sell now is very low. That’s because, when “market value” is lower than “realised value” (see link article), as it is now, it means that people on average would sell in a loss. And lots of psychologies studies (including Nobel prize 2005) already shown that people are less likely to sell into a loss than in a little profit. It’s much easier for someone to sell btc if they realise some profit. But very less likely that they would do the same to realise a little loss. And if you consider that there’s a general narrative that bitcoin is going to moon in the long term, they will hold even more frequently.

So we end up in a situation that there’s less and less people willing to sell (because at this point almost every seller would realise loss, not profit).

My personal belief is that we have seen the bottom. When we were on 3k, the market value was 40% lower than realised value. That means that, at that point, a seller would, in average, lose 40% in the trade. I don’t think there’s a lot of people left willing to realise a 40%+ loss. And if we are gonna see a deeper bottom, that would bounce immediately (because of the immediate absence of sellers).

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