Hello, I feel I should introduce myself first.
I got into Bitcoin back mid-2017. I bought in at about 1.8k if I remember correctly. I was also invested in Ethereum at this time, and got in between 60-120 (my friend sent me some at 60, but I continued to buy around 120).
As many of you know. Bitcoin has been in a bear market for the past several months. And over these past several months concerns have popped into my mind in regards to the overall health and future of Bitcoin:
Bitcoin Futures were introduced into the market on December 17th, 2017. The first futures contracts expired relatively shortly after. This correlates almost exactly with the beginning of the bear-market we are in now. BTC Daily Chart
Institutions are now allowed to invest in Bitcoin. Institutions for the most part, have every reason to short Bitcoin rather than go Long. And that seems to be the case, as the money in most institutions far out-weights the money in the retail market. Making it harder for retail bulls to overpower the bears. This seems to be the case today as well.
Bitcoin has become centralized. As of today, the top 5 Bitcoin mining pools account for 67.2% of the hash power in the Bitcoin network. If you look at the top 10 mining pools, this number gets even larger at 86.6%. Meaning, Bitcoin as a network is effectively centralized. I understand that mining pools contain hundreds or thousands of miners, often independent of one another mining as a group. But correct me if I’m wrong, the workers in a pool you do NOT need to have a copy of the block chain on your miner to be apart of the pool. And if I understand more of this correctly, this means a compromise of a large network such as AntPool would lead to a large amount of the Bitcoin’s hash power to be taken advantage of. Thus, leading to the very same vulnerabilities Bitcoin set out to prevent by being decentralized. Bitcoin Mining Pools Visualized
Enterprise Blockchains such as Hyperledger and Quorum have stolen away Bitcoin’s potential “enterprise marketshare”. Hyperledger is sponsored by The Linux Foundation and is open source. Quorum is also open source, and based directly off of Ethereum. These Blockchains do not have any sort of value or price attached to them like Bitcoin or Ethereum, and have been shown to scale much better and simpler than both Bitcoin and Ethereum. JP Morgan has used Quorum to settle bond transactions over Quorum, and further testing and implementations are being worked on now. Amazon now supports Smart Contract Templates for both Etheruem and Hyperledger. Furthermore, JP Morgan has tested “debt issuance” over Quorum, marking a huge milestone for Blockchain in our Financial Infrastructure.
None of what I mentioned above was an issue in 2013, or 2015 when we saw our previous bear markets in Bitcoin. This makes me truly believe that we’re unlikely to see a bull run like we did in 2017 ever again. Not to mention the fact that Cryptocurrencies in and of themselves are more regulated than ever before, which could in turn lead to lower levels of volatility now and in the years to come. I’m sure Bitcoin will have its pops and bull runs, but nothing parabolic like we’ve seen in the past.
Please tell me I’m wrong, because I’d rather be wrong than right in this case.